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November 22, 2005
Apple-a-Day or Traders Never Win
After watching the price of Apple stock continually rise I decided it wasn't going to fall anywhere close to my selling price and even less likely to go lower so I could repurchase it. It actually did hit my selling price when the earnings report missed the lofty expectations of some Wall Streeters. I bought it back and sold it when it climbed a few dollars and then dipped. Knowing it would dip further and then climb again (which it did), my intention was to purchase it on the dip and then hold on to it for awhile. Well, it turns out that the money I earned from the sale wasn't readily available to me and that was the money I intended to use in the repurchase. I have a value online brokerage account and they just don't work that fast. Unfortunately, I didn't find this out until after I had sold. By the time my cash was available the stock had risen well above the previous high I'd recently achieved and I'd more than missed my window.
The wise investor knows when she's beaten and doesn't miss out on a great opportunity in stubborn anticipation of a greater opportunity that probably won't ever materialize. This would be akin to refusing to make $1000 because I'd missed out on the opportunity to make $1500. Since I repurchased the stock last week (at an ever bigger premium compared to when I sold and bought last month) it has already risen a few dollars.
By my rudimentary calculations, If I bought stock on December 11, 1995 for the going rate of $9.87 I would have spent $987.50. If I did nothing with the shares other than let it sit in my IRA, that 100 shares would have converted to 400 shares worth about $65 currently. This extends to $26,384 which is about a 2500% profit in 10 years. That's with a lot of highs and lows in the interim and it does take a strong stomach to watch your little nest egg lose money even if only theoretically. From what I understand, the same type of growth scenario can be said for even boring old stocks like Microsoft. The way to go is the long haul.
I feel better as person as an Apple owner and I missed it from my portfolio when I sold it. I feel I'm part of innovation and a deep-seeded optimism about the future as an apple owner. It was also my first big success in my personal portfolio. Apple just feels good.
I've decided the way to go from now on is to purchase the stock when it's a value without selling the stock I already have. This way I can continually build on my little nest egg. While I know the Apple fever won't last forever; I believe it will last for quite awhile. And then there's that saying I learned as a child that can still ring true today with a little paraphrasing... an AAPL a day; keeps the poorhouse away."
Posted by mermu at November 22, 2005 12:46 PM
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